Leinster are in yet another Champions Cup final, and I have to admit, this one is probably the most nerve wrecking finals of them all. As much as it’s exciting, it’s very tough on the aul mind and heart, and for the team, it’s a massive undertaking going into this weekend. Life right now for the team and supporters is tough……… but what a lovely complaint to have, right?

There’s no escaping the fact that Leinster have been an incredibe joy to watch, highly consistent in how they approach games, showing power and flair and a passion that in my opinion is unparalleled in European rugby. However, and equally unescapable, they have been consistently brilliant until they reach the finals! They have gone into their last 3 finals since 2019 as massive favourites, but fell very agonisingly, as well as uncharacteristically, short of lifting the cup. We as supporters put that down to a mental breakdown at times, mostly in the second half of those finals. We also look to the coaching setup and see how they can allow a team go into finals unprepared. And we then ponder about what could have been. The routes to the finals have always been very positive but for some reason, the team has fallen apart when it truly mattered most. Now, that’s harsh, but there’s truth to it, purely based on the fact that we have eyes and it’s been clear to see at least from a spectators vantage point. There has been an issue in the past where Leinster appear to drop off in terms of performance when it comes to the final. Look at last year’s final for example; we were 17 nil up, but still lost the game. That was a record breaking comeback of any team in Champions Cup history, and it was Leinster who allowed that to happen. All that being said, I believe there’s a reason for why that has happened.
If you look at the last number of seasons, Leinster has been very consistent when approaching the Champions Cup. They have destroyed teams on route to the final, racking up big scores against formidable opponents, securing home comforts for the knockout stages, and deservedly getting the favourites tag to lift the trophy. Things have always looked very bright and sunny for Leinster through the pool stages and right up to the home stretch. I believe that Leinster’s biggest weakness is there inability to manage teams that disrupt their flow when they’re on top. Now, that could be said of any team, but when you look at the strength of their squad, and the experience they have, I think it’s fair to say that they should be able to manage the more challenging teams more effectively given their overall brilliance in every facet of the game. They find finals difficult because over the past number of seasons, they have reached the final without a huge amount of pressure or disruption from their opponents (no offence to their opponents but the stats don’t lie). That has led to them being a little undercooked and maybe mentally unprepared for what to do when things go wrong. By not being massively challenged throughout the pool and knockout stages that lead to the final, this has maybe allowed some complacency to set in, and our final opponents have maybe been more prepared. Why? Well, because most other teams have been challenged far more than us on route to the final, and when they see it’s Leinster they are facing, they get themselves a lot more mentally prepared for us and potentially deploy a “nothing to lose” approach when facing us. Leinster on the other hand back themselves in terms of how they got to the final and maybe lack a little bit of concern about what their opponent might bring to the game. Now don’t get me wrong, Saracens and La Rochelle deserved their wins against us, but it’s the manner in how we were defeated that leads me to believe there’s a mental problem going into those games. I mean, look at the highlights (I won’t anymore, I just can’t), they start off in control and it looks like glory again for the boys in blue, but something happens (generally when there’s a little purple patch for the other side) that makes the team lose their shape and focus towards the end. And once they lose their focus, they just never get it back which is very frustrating to watch.
The good news is, this year is a little different. Leinster have played some incredible rugby, against some incredible teams, and have not always had an easy route to this year’s final. They’ve been made work hard for it. Home and away to La Rochelle, then a very dogged game against an on-fire Northampton, has given the team a lot to think about. They’ve gotten the monkey off the back regarding their perceived voodoo with La Rochelle by destroying them in the quarter final, and then had a massive scare in the semi-final against a Northampton team that pushed every button to try and derail our blue train en route glory station. Leinster had to adapt to some games in a way that they haven’t needed to in previous seasons. They’ve had to dig deep, both mentally and physically in order to come out on the winning side. The Northampton game was scary, they almost lost it, but they didn’t, they dug in and persevered.
They did this by deploying some changes to how they play the game, most significantly, around their defence. And this is where the impact of our newest coach, Jacques Nienaber, has been instrumental to our success and also our new approach. You could see his influence on our defence and then how we took care of La Rochelle in the quarter final, we now play a varied style that is less predictable under the previous coaching regime. Making ourselves more unpredictable has been massively important in my opinion. But it’s taken the team time to bed in these new structures and it doesn’t always look pretty. But the great news is that you don’t need to win pretty to lift the cup, maybe that’s a big lesson that they’ve learned, time will tell!

So, let’s take a look at the selection from Cullen & Co.:

15. Hugo Keenan (65)
14. Jordan Larmour (104)
13. Robbie Henshaw (88)
12. Jamie Osborne (43)
11. James Lowe (78)
10. Ross Byrne (158)
9. Jamison Gibson-Park (138)

1. Andrew Porter (118)
2. Dan Sheehan (59)
3. Tadhg Furlong (143)
4. Joe McCarthy (32)
5. Jason Jenkins (37)
6. Ryan Baird (66)
7. Will Connors (48)
8. Caelan Doris (79) CAPTAIN

Replacements:
16. Rónan Kelleher (60)
17. Cian Healy (276)
18. Michael Ala’alatoa (68)
19. James Ryan (80)
20. Jack Conan (144)
21. Luke McGrath (208)
22. Ciarán Frawley (84)
23. Josh van der Flier (139)

Now that is a team and a half. We have 14 Irish internationals in the starting team, with an additional 7 on the bench, an incredible representation of the Irish squad. This bodes well for Leinster as these are the players that know each other best, having trained regularly for both Leinster and Ireland. The cohesion that this brings cannot be understated, and it’s exactly what is needed. It’s perfect timing for Jimmy O’Brien, Hugo Keenan, and James Ryan who have recently returned for injury layoffs. With the loss of Garry Ringrose, these three key men will be of massive importance. A lot of the usual suspects take their regular places but it’s the return of Will Connors to the starting lineup that is intriguing. Cullen has opted for a 6-2 split and given the nod to Connors ahead of Van Der Flier who will take up the number 23 jersey. Not a bad replacement to bring on in the latter stages of the game. So too with Ryan Baird who will start with the co-captain James Ryan another incredible option off the bench.

It’s a very strong team and one that are very hard to break down given the skill and experience they bring into each game they play together. But this is where Toulouse will have something to say. Their team is equally stacked with international quality and have been performed very strongly throughout this year’s campaign. They look to be in great form, and have no injury concerns so it’s a fully strength team coming to face off with Leinster in Tottenham. Bring it on!

Where the game will be won.
On the scoreboard……
Seriously though, this final represents the most intriguing of them all. Toulouse have won the competition more than anyone else, currently with 5 championship titles under their belt. Leinster are in second place with 4 titles. So it’s definitely the clash of the titans, the two greatest teams in Europe meeting in a final for the first time. Both teams have been to 7 finals each, Leinster losing 3 of theirs, but Toulouse losing out of an opportunity on getting to a final 3 times at the hands of Leinster. We are a bogey team for Toulouse and I’m sure they are hugely aware of that.
Both sides have big ambitions and their own baggage going into the final. Leinster have failed to finish strongly in the last two finals which ultimately ended their campaigns in disaster. Whereas Toulouse have been knocked out by Leinster over the last two seasons, so they’ll be looking to seek some revenge. The hurt from two consecutive final losses for Leinster will bring another flavour to the intrigue of tomorrow’s game, and definitely another level of nervousness for the supporters! Needless to say, I’ll be at the bar ordering a pint more than the ball goes into touch. #drinkresponsibly
Given the motivations on both sides, Leinster will feel under massive pressure to end the drought of final losses, and with that comes a lot of expectation among the squad, supporters, media and everyone in between. Can Leinster control their emotions on the day and focus solely on the task at hand, or will the pressure just be too much to bear? Will Toulouse target that perceived weakness and deploy a game plan to thwart us once more? The winning of the game will be determined ultimately by the mindset from kick off. Leinster will need to have cool heads, 100% focus, and an unbelievable and relentless display of hunger from minute 1 to 80. That will be critical because when you look at the highlights of the last two finals (again, I can’t anymore), you can see the drop-off in focus very clearly. That can’t happen against Toulouse. A focused and solid performance is the only way to glory for Leinster. No pressure!!
Another area of intrigue is the styles of play on both sides. Toulouse love to take risks in attack, and keep the ball in play. Their attack has been phenomenal and they back their ability to score tries from anywhere on the field. So much so that their defence is not particularly as strong, mainly due to the fact that they just believe they’ll outscore their opponents and as a result, trust the numbers game. Leinster on the other hand have changed their style to a defensive approach where they look to disrupt attackers, hunt for turnovers and back their rock solid defensive structures in order to deploy their attack from. Their attack is not too shabby either, scoring on average 5 tries per game, and an average win rate of 16 points throughout their 7 games this season. So, while our defense is most likely the priority in terms of our overall gameplan, our attack cannot be discounted. That will be an advantage for Leinster if they can get Gibson Park, Lowe and Keenan into space with the help of a strong forward pack.
My feeling is that the game will be decided on who manages to dominate the game early. Leinster have been the more successful in this area throughout the championship whereby they have dominated the key areas of each game from minute one, whereas Toulouse tend to grow into the game as the time ticks by. But what Toulouse do effectively is they seem to identify weaknesses over time and shift their focus to break teams down in those areas, very much like La Rochelle. Leinster will need to keep their shape, and if they can dominate early, they need to put the foot on the throat of their opponents with a sense of controlled urgency. They’ve proven to be able to do that for most of their games this season so it’s all about whether they can back that up now and do it once more. Finals are a crazy thing, they can bring our the best and also the absolute worst in a team. More good news, Leinster know this more than anyone at this stage. Is that an advantage? I think so.

Prediction
This is definitely the hardest game to call. Not because of the fact we’re facing off in the biggest final in the history of the tournament, or that we face a French team arguably greater than La Rochelle over the past number of years. It’s the pressure and expectation on Leinster given their final performances over the last few years. I’m very nervous about this game as you can imagine, I don’t think any Leinster fan will be overly optimistic. However, when I remove the nerves and look at the game objectively, taking everything into account, I believe that Leinster will have just a little bit more in their armory for Toulouse to handle. I think our bench will hurt Toulouse a lot and it could be the winning of the game, such is the level of experience ready to be unleashed in the latter stages. If Toulouse turn up with a 100% solid performance and so do Leinster, I can’t see past a Leinster win. Why? Well, we are a stronger side and a lot more consistent when we fully turn up.
Leinster have been through a lot, and they’ve learned some huge lessons over the last couple of years. They know exactly what they need to do and I’m certain that they have come up with an approach to solve past mistakes, and I just see them putting on a massive display tomorrow, maybe even one of their best ever. I don’t believe they’ll fall victim of their drop in belief and focus this time around because they know what that will do, more than any other team in Europe – they won’t let themselves or their supporters down this year. A fifth star beckons, and it’s 100% their’s Toulouse. Cheeky prediction is that Leinster will score first through Andrew Porter and from there, we’ll hold onto the lead.

Leinster 31 – Toulouse 22